2017-18 HSC Section 3 Green Book

Original article

▶ Table 3 Comparison between endoscopic grading on days 1 and 5 for predicting the development of esophageal stricture (n = 62).

Sensitivity (95%CI)

Specificity (95%CI)

PPV (95%CI)

NPV (95%CI)

Positive LR (95%CI) 2.66 (1.7 – 4.0) 5.65 (2.9 – 10.8)

Negative LR (95%CI) 0.12 (0.02 – 0.7) 0.09 (0.01 – 0.6)

Severe injury on day 1 Severe injury on day 5

92 % (63.9 – 99.8) 92 % (63.9 – 99.8)

65 % (50.3 – 78.3) 83 % (70.3 – 96.2)

41 % (31.7 – 51.6) 60 % (43.8 – 74.2)

96 % (82.8 – 99.5) 97 % (86.1 – 99.6)

CI, confidence interval; PPV, positive predictive value; NPV, negative predictive value; LR, likelihood ratio.

▶ Table 4 Comparison between endoscopic grading on days 1 and 5 for predicting development of antropyloric stenosis (n = 62).

Sensitivity (95%CI)

Specificity (95%CI)

PPV (95%CI)

NPV (95%CI)

Positive LR (95%CI) 2.49 (1.6 – 3.7) 16.0 (4.2 – 66.1)

Negative LR (95%CI) 0.08 (0.01 – 0.5) 0.21 (0.09 – 0.5)

Severe injury on day 1 Severe injury on day 5

95 % (75.1 – 99.8) 80 % (56.3 – 94.2)

61 % (45.6 – 76.4) 95 % (86.4 – 99.4)

54 % (44.36 – 63.8)

96 % (79.1 – 99.4) 90 % (80.5 – 96)

88 % (67 – 96.9)

CI, confidence interval; PPV, positive predictive value; NPV, negative predictive value; LR, likelihood ratio.

1.0

1.0

0.8

0.8

0.6

0.6

0.4

0.4

Sensitivity

Sensitivity

0.2

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1-Specificity

1-Specificity

Day 1 severe esophageal injury Day 5 severe esophageal injury Reference Line

Day 1 severe gastric injury Day 5 severe gastric injury Reference Line

▶ Fig. 5 Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve showing that day 5 endoscopy has a better discriminant ability for predicting subsequent development of antropyloric stenosis compared with day 1 endoscopy: area under the curve (AUC) 0.876 (95 % confi- dence interval [CI] 0.765 – 0.987) vs. 0.785 (95 %CI 0.670 – 0.899; P < 0.001).

▶ Fig. 4 Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve showing that day 5 endoscopy has a better discriminant ability for predicting subsequent development of esophageal stricture compared with day 1 endoscopy: area under the curve (AUC) 0.880 (95 % confi- dence interval [CI] 0.775 – 0.985) vs. 0.788 (95 %CI 0.663 – 0.913; P < 0.001).

Kochhar Rakesh et al. Relook endoscopy predicts … Endoscopy

217