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AMERICAN ACADEMY OF OTOLARYNGOLOGY–HEAD AND NECK SURGERY

Analysis: Pediatric Otolaryngology

years was 38, the model assumed 37 annually, with no increases – in the setting of resident increases and excess training capacity. The 2023 ratio of U.S.-based pediatric otolaryngologists to the pediatric population (ages 0-17) is 1.16 (Figure 12.21). This ratio looks to increase to 1.50, or nearly a 30% increase, by 2040. Modeling different scenarios of graduates per year and pediatric population growth rate variability (and combinations of both), ratios do not look to be markedly different (Table 12.14). Given the extremes to which we would need to take these scenarios (21 trainees per year, or 10 times the predicted pediatric population growth rate) to have a stable ratio, most of the ratio increase seems to be “built in,” driven by the increase in pediatric otolaryngology graduates in the past few decades,

their relatively higher workforce longevity over the next 17 years, as well as an historically anemic pediatric population growth (Table 12.15). While framing workforce ratio comparisons with “all else equal” is important, the looming ratio increases could cut both ways. With the degree to which future workers concentrate in urban settings, as appears to be the trend, the potential gains of having increased expertise in high-complexity areas may be undercut. However, to the degree that new locations are established, or partnerships developed in more rural locations, expertise may become more universally projected to all pediatric patients. All of this subspecialty information, taken together, speaks to opportunities for further research, outreach, and leadership to carve the best path forward.

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THE 2023 OTOLARYNGOLOGY WORKFORCE