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THE 2023 OTOLARYNGOLOGY WORKFORCE

FIGURE 12.21: Projected Change in Ratio of Pediatric Otolaryngologists per 100k Children Age 0-17 Under Different Scenario Modeling

1.55

Pediatric Otolaryngology

1.35

39 Trainees/Year, 10% Lower 0-17 Population Growth 35 Trainees/Year, 10% Higher 0-17 Population Growth

1.15

Status Quo (37 Trainees), ±10% 0-17 Population Growth

23 24

26

27 28 29

31

32 33 34

36 37 38 39

2025

2030

2040

2035

TABLE 12.14: Projected Change in Ratio of Pediatric Otolaryngologists per 100k Children Age 0-17 between 2023 and 2040 Under Different Scenario Modeling

Scenario

Pediatric Otolaryngologists per 100k Children Aged 0-17

Trainees per Year

0-17 Population Growth versus Average (140,556/year)

2023

2040

Percent Change

10% Lower

39

1.16

1.54

33%

Average

10% Lower Average 10% Higher

1.50

37

1.16

29%

1.49

Average

35

1.16

1.45

25%

10% Higher

TABLE 12.15: Scenarios Creating Stable Pediatric Otolaryngologist to 100k Children Age 0-17 Ratio

Scenarios

1,450,000 annual 0-17 population growth (versus current average of 140,556)

21 trainees per year practicing in the U.S./ Puerto Rico (versus current average of 37)

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AMERICAN ACADEMY OF OTOLARYNGOLOGY–HEAD AND NECK SURGERY