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Costs & Spending

Exhibit 4

National health expenditures (NHE) amounts and average annual growth, by spending category, selected calendar years 2021 – 32

Projected

Spending category Expenditure, billions NHE

2021

2022

2023

2024

2026

2032

$4,289.1 4,081.6 3,561.5 1,325.2 1,160.4

$4,464.6 4,246.8 3,704.8 1,355.0 1,190.7

$4,799.3 4,565.2 4,038.2 1,491.7 1,293.1

$5,048.8 4,802.7 4,251.2 1,559.6 1,360.3 1,006.5

$5,560.3 5,288.3 4,687.4 1,709.4 1,490.7 1,105.1

$7,705.0 7,347.6 6,532.3 2,366.3 2,038.8 1,522.1

Health consumption expenditures

Personal health care

Hospital care

Professional services

Physician and clinical services Other professional services

861.8 133.8 164.8 224.7 125.4 181.1 544.6 374.5

884.9 140.6 165.3 246.5 132.9 191.3 588.4 405.9

959.1 157.8 176.1 266.6 145.2 209.3 632.3 434.1

168.6 185.2 284.1 154.8 216.3 676.1 463.6

184.2 201.4 322.4 177.5 237.6 749.9 516.5

250.2 266.5 469.0 282.7

Dental services

Other health, residential, and personal care

Home health care

Nursing care facilities and continuing care retirement communities Retail outlet sales of medical products

337.4

1,038.0

Prescription drugs

728.5 114.7 194.8 534.7 198.1 357.4 103.0 254.4 82.6

Durable medical equipment

63.8

67.1

70.9

75.3

84.1

Other nondurable medical products

106.4

115.4

127.2

137.2

149.3

Government administration Net cost of health insurance

52.0

54.2

56.7

58.1

64.3

257.5 210.6 207.5

279.4 208.4 217.8

306.0 164.3 234.1

328.2 165.2 246.1

369.5 167.1 271.9

Government public health activities

Investment

Noncommercial research Structures and equipment

61.9

64.8

68.0

71.3

78.3

145.5

153.0

166.1

174.8

193.6

2021 a

Average annual growth

2022

2023

2024

2025 – 26 2027 – 32

NHE

6.9% 4.1% 7.5% 5.2% 4.9% 5.6%

Health consumption expenditures

7.0 6.0 5.4 6.5 6.0 9.8 7.1 7.4 5.6 2.0 7.2 5.6 9.3

4.0 4.0 2.2 2.6 2.7 5.1 0.3 9.7 6.0 5.6 8.0 8.4 5.1 8.5 4.2 8.5 5.0 4.7 5.1

7.5 9.0

5.2 5.3 4.6 5.2 4.9 6.8 5.2 6.5 6.6 3.3 6.9 6.8 6.2 7.9 2.4 7.3 0.5 5.1 4.8 5.3

4.9 5.0 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.5 4.3 6.5 7.1 4.8 5.3 5.5 5.7 4.3 5.2 6.1 0.6 5.1 4.8 5.2

5.6 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.5 5.2 4.8 6.4 8.1 6.0 5.6 5.9 5.3 4.5 4.3 6.4 2.9 4.7 4.7 4.7

Personal health care

Hospital care

10.1

Professional services

8.6 8.4

Physician and clinical services Other professional services

12.3

Dental services

6.5 8.2 9.3 9.5 7.5 7.0 5.7

Other health, residential, and personal care

Home health care

Nursing care facilities and continuing care retirement communities Retail outlet sales of medical products

Prescription drugs

Durable medical equipment

Other nondurable medical products

12.0

10.2

Government administration Net cost of health insurance

4.5 4.6

4.6 9.5

− 1.0

− 21.2

Government public health activities

39.4

Investment

3.4 4.7 2.9

7.5 4.9 8.6

Noncommercial research Structures and equipment

SOURCE Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), Office of the Actuary, National Health Statistics Group. NOTES Definitions, sources, and methods for NHE categories can be found in CMS. National Health Expenditure Accounts: methodology paper (see the exhibit 1 notes). Numbers might not add to totals because of rounding. Percent changes are calculated from unrounded data. Tables with data for all years of the projection period can be found in CMS.gov. NHE projections tables (see note 1 in text). a Reflects annual growth for 2019 – 21 to average the volatile impacts of the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Chronological Overview Of Major Trends In National Health Expenditures 2023 In 2023, national health expenditures are projected to have totaled $4.8 trillion as growth is estimated to have accelerated to 7.5 percent

(from 4.1 percent in 2022) and to have outpaced nominal GDP growth (6.1 percent) for the first time since 2020 1 (exhibit 1). Accordingly, the health spending share of GDP is estimated to have increased from 17.3 percent in 2022 to 17.6 percent in 2023. Increases are projected

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Health Affairs July 2024 43:7

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