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Costs & Spending
Exhibit 4
National health expenditures (NHE) amounts and average annual growth, by spending category, selected calendar years 2021 – 32
Projected
Spending category Expenditure, billions NHE
2021
2022
2023
2024
2026
2032
$4,289.1 4,081.6 3,561.5 1,325.2 1,160.4
$4,464.6 4,246.8 3,704.8 1,355.0 1,190.7
$4,799.3 4,565.2 4,038.2 1,491.7 1,293.1
$5,048.8 4,802.7 4,251.2 1,559.6 1,360.3 1,006.5
$5,560.3 5,288.3 4,687.4 1,709.4 1,490.7 1,105.1
$7,705.0 7,347.6 6,532.3 2,366.3 2,038.8 1,522.1
Health consumption expenditures
Personal health care
Hospital care
Professional services
Physician and clinical services Other professional services
861.8 133.8 164.8 224.7 125.4 181.1 544.6 374.5
884.9 140.6 165.3 246.5 132.9 191.3 588.4 405.9
959.1 157.8 176.1 266.6 145.2 209.3 632.3 434.1
168.6 185.2 284.1 154.8 216.3 676.1 463.6
184.2 201.4 322.4 177.5 237.6 749.9 516.5
250.2 266.5 469.0 282.7
Dental services
Other health, residential, and personal care
Home health care
Nursing care facilities and continuing care retirement communities Retail outlet sales of medical products
337.4
1,038.0
Prescription drugs
728.5 114.7 194.8 534.7 198.1 357.4 103.0 254.4 82.6
Durable medical equipment
63.8
67.1
70.9
75.3
84.1
Other nondurable medical products
106.4
115.4
127.2
137.2
149.3
Government administration Net cost of health insurance
52.0
54.2
56.7
58.1
64.3
257.5 210.6 207.5
279.4 208.4 217.8
306.0 164.3 234.1
328.2 165.2 246.1
369.5 167.1 271.9
Government public health activities
Investment
Noncommercial research Structures and equipment
61.9
64.8
68.0
71.3
78.3
145.5
153.0
166.1
174.8
193.6
2021 a
Average annual growth
2022
2023
2024
2025 – 26 2027 – 32
NHE
6.9% 4.1% 7.5% 5.2% 4.9% 5.6%
Health consumption expenditures
7.0 6.0 5.4 6.5 6.0 9.8 7.1 7.4 5.6 2.0 7.2 5.6 9.3
4.0 4.0 2.2 2.6 2.7 5.1 0.3 9.7 6.0 5.6 8.0 8.4 5.1 8.5 4.2 8.5 5.0 4.7 5.1
7.5 9.0
5.2 5.3 4.6 5.2 4.9 6.8 5.2 6.5 6.6 3.3 6.9 6.8 6.2 7.9 2.4 7.3 0.5 5.1 4.8 5.3
4.9 5.0 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.5 4.3 6.5 7.1 4.8 5.3 5.5 5.7 4.3 5.2 6.1 0.6 5.1 4.8 5.2
5.6 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.5 5.2 4.8 6.4 8.1 6.0 5.6 5.9 5.3 4.5 4.3 6.4 2.9 4.7 4.7 4.7
Personal health care
Hospital care
10.1
Professional services
8.6 8.4
Physician and clinical services Other professional services
12.3
Dental services
6.5 8.2 9.3 9.5 7.5 7.0 5.7
Other health, residential, and personal care
Home health care
Nursing care facilities and continuing care retirement communities Retail outlet sales of medical products
Prescription drugs
Durable medical equipment
Other nondurable medical products
12.0
10.2
Government administration Net cost of health insurance
4.5 4.6
4.6 9.5
− 1.0
− 21.2
Government public health activities
39.4
Investment
3.4 4.7 2.9
7.5 4.9 8.6
Noncommercial research Structures and equipment
SOURCE Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), Office of the Actuary, National Health Statistics Group. NOTES Definitions, sources, and methods for NHE categories can be found in CMS. National Health Expenditure Accounts: methodology paper (see the exhibit 1 notes). Numbers might not add to totals because of rounding. Percent changes are calculated from unrounded data. Tables with data for all years of the projection period can be found in CMS.gov. NHE projections tables (see note 1 in text). a Reflects annual growth for 2019 – 21 to average the volatile impacts of the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Chronological Overview Of Major Trends In National Health Expenditures 2023 In 2023, national health expenditures are projected to have totaled $4.8 trillion as growth is estimated to have accelerated to 7.5 percent
(from 4.1 percent in 2022) and to have outpaced nominal GDP growth (6.1 percent) for the first time since 2020 1 (exhibit 1). Accordingly, the health spending share of GDP is estimated to have increased from 17.3 percent in 2022 to 17.6 percent in 2023. Increases are projected
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Health Affairs July 2024 43:7
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